In a world full of complexity and uncertainty, risk management is crucial to the success of large projects. Whether it concerns high-tech innovations, energy transition, area development or infrastructure, projects often involve significant risks and unexpected events that can disrupt progress. At BAEKEN, we use Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (OPRA) to provide project teams with the insights they need to remain successful. In this article, we discuss the unique capabilities of OPRA and why it is still one of the best choices for Monte Carlo analysis in large-scale projects.
OPRA is an advanced software tool that has been specially designed for modeling and analyzing risks within complex project plans. With OPRA, project teams can identify and analyze risks and predict the impact on project costs and timelines by using probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analyses. Although the tool’s interface is outdated and the software has a steep learning curve, OPRA offers unparalleled depth and accuracy in risk assessment. This makes it an essential tool for companies that want to actively manage risks and make strategic decisions based on detailed data.
OPRA is the ideal choice for sectors where risks have a major impact on project progress and budgets. At BAEKEN, we use OPRA primarily when a detailed risk register is available and there is a need to accurately quantify and manage uncertainties. The tool helps us develop probabilistic schedules that take uncertainties and risks into account, enabling project managers to better anticipate potential problems and create realistic expectations.
At BAEKEN, we understand that risk management is more than just identifying potential hazards; it is about strategically managing these risks to reduce the chance of project failure. Our consultants are trained in the use of OPRA and support our clients in drawing up detailed risk registers and performing probabilistic analyses. We help organizations not only identify risks, but also determine which risks have the greatest impact and where proactive mitigation is necessary.
Although OPRA may not be the most user-friendly tool, it offers unparalleled possibilities for in-depth risk analysis and probabilistic planning. Thanks to its unique features such as Monte-Carlo analysis, probabilistic branching, and the possibility to model integrated risks, OPRA remains a powerful choice for organizations that strive for accurate and detailed risk management. At BAEKEN, we help clients get the most out of OPRA and successfully complete their projects through effective risk management.
Are you ready to take your risk management to the next level? Contact BAEKEN and discover how we can strengthen your next project with Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis.
Want to know more about this topic?
Earned Value Management (EVM) offers a powerful way to gain insight into the performance of your project. When properly set up, EVM can yield much more than just a single S-curve. It offers dynamic, in-depth insights that help to monitor and adjust the performance of various project aspects such as disciplines, contractors and phases. At BAEKEN, we go beyond the standard approach. We always link EVM to probabilistic analyses to provide a more realistic picture of project performance. Here, we explain what EVM can do for you and what you need to successfully implement it.
Earned Value Management offers much more than just a snapshot of your project. It gives you in-depth insights that enable you to steer dynamically, manage risks and monitor value production at specific levels. At BAEKEN, we go even further by linking EVM to probabilistic analyses, which gives a more realistic picture of project performance and enables better-informed decisions. By setting up EVM properly, you can not only improve the performance of your project, but also draw valuable lessons for your entire organization.
Want to know more about this topic?
Change management and scope management are two distinct but interrelated aspects of project management. Understanding the difference between them is essential for effectively managing projects.
Definition: Scope management involves defining and controlling what is and is not included in the project. It ensures that the project includes all the work required, and only the work required, to complete the project successfully.
Definition: Change management involves handling any alterations to the project, including changes in scope, schedule, costs, and resources. It ensures that changes are evaluated, approved, and implemented in a controlled manner.
While scope management and change management are distinct processes, they are closely interrelated. Scope management defines the boundaries of the project, and change management handles any alterations to those boundaries as well as other project aspects. Effective project management requires both clear definition and control of the project scope and a structured approach to managing changes to ensure project success. By integrating scope management and change management, project teams can maintain project integrity, adapt to new information and requirements, and achieve their objectives efficiently.
Want to know more about this topic?
Create an overview of your project with dashboards and improve communication to stakeholders and management. Oracle Primavera Cloud (OPC)
offers its own dashboard module for this purpose, which allows you to create visual representations of schedules, risks and costs. Despite this, the dashboard functionality of OPC remains limited when you really need in-depth insights.At BAEKEN, we solve this by accessing the data from OPC via an API and further visualizing it in Power BI. In this way, we combine the power of OPC with the flexibility and analysis capabilities of Power BI, leading to smarter insights and better decisions.
OPC’s dashboard module provides a good foundation, such as standard charts and visualizations of project progress, trends, and tasks. OPC also makes it easy to share dashboards with colleagues and team members. Nevertheless, the system has its shortcomings:
As a result, with OPC dashboarding, you are often stuck with superficial insights. For organizations that want more, accessing OPC data via an API
is a solution.At BAEKEN, we use OPC ‘s API to make all available project data instantly and fully accessible. Through this link to Power BI, we bring data together and create in-depth, interactive dashboards that fit the needs of your project, program, or portfolio.
What makes our approach unique?
By integrating OPC data into Power BI, you optimize your project management in a way that matches modern expectations of data-driven decision making. API-driven dashboards not only offer more flexibility, but also provide a broader perspective on project performance, budget monitoring, and resource management. Imagine: one-click access to project performance and the ability to make proactive adjustments at the project level.
At BAEKEN we are experts in accessing OPC data via API and translating complex project information into clear, visual dashboards in Power BI. We make sure your data truly works for you to help you better manage time, cost, and quality.
Contact us and discover how BAEKEN transforms your OPC dashboarding into valuable insights that let your projects, programs, and portfolios excel.
Want to know more about this topic?
In lean planning, the troublesome but well-known planning method involves the physical “sticker session.” Team members gather around a board, post-its in hand, and stick on their tasks for the week. At the end of the week, the board is rearranged again because not all tasks have been completed. While this method can be effective, there are hefty drawbacks: lack of overview and no direct link to the overall project schedule.
In this article, I’ll tell you more about how Oracle Primavera Cloud (OPC) Task can provide a solution to this.Imagine being able to turn that chaos of paper and post-its into a smooth digital process. OPC offers the perfect solution with the Task Module. No more manually shifting post-its or miscommunicating on tasks. Everything is automatically linked to the relevant activities in the planning. This way, you keep an overview, make sure your team is always in sync and your planners experience less stress processing the lean planning.
With OPC Task, you get a solution that not only meets the modern requirements of project management. It also provides a powerful tool to strengthen collaborations and make progress tangible. BAEKEN is ready to seamlessly integrate this innovative tool into your organization and support you and your team on your way to greater insight and success in planning and execution.
Contact us for a complimentary discussion on how BAEKEN can help you implement the OPC Task Module. Together we will discover the possibilities to take your project management to the next level. Step away from the physical stickers and embrace the future of lean project planning with Oracle Primavera Cloud and BAEKEN!
Want to know more about this topic?
In the past, the Oracle Primavera Cloud (OPC) risk module was found to deviate significantly from Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (OPRA), the long-established and reliable risk analysis software. The P50 and P80 data in OPC then differed by 30+ working days from the data generated by OPRA. Now we have conducted a risk analysis comparison between OPC and OPRA for a project again, and we report this analysis in detail here.
The risk analyses were performed on all activities with 5000 iterations, without convergence and with the same random seed (1). The example project on which the analyses were performed contained more than 1000 activities and 125 risks, all of which were included. There were initially no uncertainties applied to this project, and subsequently an analysis with uncertainties was performed on all activities. These uncertainties had a minimum of 90%, most likely of 100% and maximum of 130%. The project analyzed spans a period of 5+ years. A risk analysis on costs was also done; this looked at what the effect of linking costs to different risks was. These costs were uniformly distributed with a minimum of 600k and maximum of 1.2 million. The project had three hard constraints regarding start times of three activities. Analyses were performed with and without these constraints. The response context was pre-response because active mitigation had not yet been performed on the project. Finish dates, P50 and P80 values, and deterministic probability were considered.
The first comparison of OPC and OPRA shows that for the finish date of the tested project, the P50 and P80 values differed from each other by only 2-3 working days on a P buffer of 180 working days (i.e., the difference between P0 and P50). The deterministic probability was 5% for both OPRA and OPC, indicating that OPC is now reliable. The frequency of finish dates was similar for OPC and OPRA (Figure 1). The only difference was in the maximum date, which differed by 30 working days between OPC and OPRA on a P buffer of 492 working days, with OPRA scheduling the date later. However, this maximum date is an outlier in the 5000 iterations of the analysis, and is almost never reported in projects.
Figure 1. Comparison of the frequency of finish dates of the tested project over 5000 iterations containing P50 and P80 values.
In addition to the finish date of the overall project, we also looked at how the finish dates of intermediate milestones differed in the risk analyses of the two programs. For intermediate milestone 1, the P50 and P80 finish dates differed only 1-2 working days on a P buffer of 112 working days between OPRA and OPC, but for intermediate milestone 2, the P80 milestone had 8 working days of deviation on a P buffer of 152 working days and the P50 was the same for both analyses. The deterministic probability for one milestone was 5% according to the OPRA analysis and 5.9% for OPC, while at the other it was 22% for OPRA and 28.6% for OPC. The frequency graphs of both intermediate milestones show the same trend, as for the finish date of the overall schedule (Figure 2). For both milestones, there was a deviation between OPRA and OPC at the maximum finish date of 30+ working days (32 and 36 respectively on P buffers of 450 and 405 working days).
Figure 2. Comparison of the frequency of finish dates for two intermediate milestones of the tested project over 5000 iterations containing P50 and P80 values.
After some adjustments to the risks that followed from a progress update to the schedule, the risk analysis was run again, now with hard constraints on three activities so that these activities would always start on the constraint date. The P50 and P80 finish dates were the same for the OPC and OPRA analysis. The mean finish date also had a deviation of only 1 day out of a difference of 132 working days between mean and P0. There was a difference in deterministic probability though: 7% according to OPRA and 9.1% according to OPC. The maximum finish date had a large difference of 86 working days on a P buffer of 480 working days. The frequency graph again shows an equal trend between OPC and OPRA, but with OPC you see more hits on the deterministic finish date which explains the difference in deterministic probability (Figure 3).
The same analysis was also conducted without the constraints; for the P80 and mean finish dates, the difference between the OPC and OPRA analyses was still only 2-3 working days on 229 working days of P buffer. However, the P50 values had a difference of 27 working days on a P buffer of 174 working days. The frequency graphs were comparable, and this shows that even a very small frequency difference could cause the P50 finish date to differ so much between the two programs (Figure 3). Remarkably however, the deterministic probability of the finish date was almost equal between the OPC and OPRA analysis (5% and 5.4% for OPRA and OPC, respectively).
Figure 3. Comparison of the frequency for the finish dates of the overall schedule after being updated with and without constraints on 3 activities of the tested project over 5000 iterations containing P50 and P80 values.
In order to consider also the influence of uncertainties, we conducted an analysis where an uncertainty of minimum 90%, most likely 100%, and maximum 130% was put on all 1000+ activities in addition to their normal risks. While this is an extreme example, it is the best way to compare how the OPC risk module responds compared to OPRA. The difference between OPC and OPRA in P50 and P80 values for the finish date was about 10 working days on a P buffer of 224 working days. This was somewhat larger than in the earlier examples, but still within the ranges that it is acceptable. In this comparison, the minimum finish date also differed by about 10 working days between the OPC and OPRA analyses. (This minimum finish date in all previous analyses was always the same in both comparisons because risks could only give run-out but uncertainties could also give run-in.) The deterministic probability was very low, as expected with so many uncertainties, where OPRA only reported <1%, while OPC was able to calculate a more accurate number (0.02%).
We linked 8 risks, each related to one activity, to costs; this resulted in a deterministic probability (note: deterministic value is not a cost value) of 41% with the risk analysis in OPRA and 39.1% for OPC. The P50 values which were 7.14 ∙ 105 and 7.41 ∙ 105 for OPRA and OPC respectively, also differed from each other by only a few percentage points (3.6%). The P80 values were even closer together with 1.07 ∙ 106 for OPRA and 1.08 ∙ 106 for OPC. The entire distribution of total costs is nearly identical in the OPC and OPRA analyses (Figure 4).
We also discovered through these analyses that the cost is linked to the risk in OPC, but in OPRA to the activity within the risk. Therefore, if the risk occurs then there is a one-time cost associated with it in OPC. If the risk occurs and there are 5 other activities attached to this activity, then in OPRA there will be 5 costs. This means that for risks with multiple activities attached, it is good to realize that OPC and OPRA calculate differently.
Figure 4. Comparison of the total cost of the tested project over 5000 iterations containing P50 and P80 values. Eight risks with costs were used for this analysis.
In addition to standard analysis on finish dates and determining P-values, risk analysis is often used to look at which activities and/or risks now have the most impact on the schedule. In OPRA, this involves looking at so-called tornado charts. An example is duration sensitivity, which means how likely the duration of an activity could affect the overall finish date of the project (Figure 5). Also relevant here is criticality index, which represents what percent of iterations an activity is on the project’s critical path.
In OPC, this feature is called mean impact and shows how many days on average an activity and/or risk causes the project to lag. Virtually the same activities appear in the top 10 mean impact (OPC) and duration sensitivity (OPRA) analyses (Figure 5). The only activity that does not appear in the mean impact is activity 3; this activity has a constraint applied to it from the schedule, which may explain as to why OPC does not show it in the mean impact analysis.
These tornado graphs show that OPC does a good job of estimating the mean impact of activities; the program just has a different way of showing the impact of activities and/or risks compared to OPRA.
Figure 5. Tornado graphs of risk analysis of the overall schedule after update with constraints which show duration sensitivity from OPRA and mean impact from OPC.
The OPC risk analysis module is now reliable enough to replace OPRA as the standard for risk analysis, even for large-scale and complex projects. This module is more user-friendly than the OPRA software and planning is already integrated into OPC so there is no longer a need to export the schedule separately to perform a risk analysis. In addition, OPC has already integrated weather risks into its risk analysis module and the platform will continue to evolve by adding more risk analysis functionalities.
One of the other main advantages of OPC over OPRA is the new “risk removal impact” functionality. In OPRA, this process must be performed manually, which is time-consuming. With OPC, however, this feature can accurately measure the impact of individual risks on the schedule compared to other risks within the project.
Nevertheless, this does not mean that OPRA can be shelved for good. In fact, the software still offers advanced risk analysis functionalities that OPC currently cannot (yet) perform. The two most important of these are probability branching and criticality index.
Want to know more about this topic?
In a world where projects are becoming increasingly complex, effective project management is essential for success. As your trusted partner in advanced project management, BAEKEN uses Oracle Primavera Cloud (OPC) to provide insight and control in high-tech innovations, energy transition, area development, and infrastructure projects. In this article, we will show you why and when you should consider OPC for your projects.
OPC is a comprehensive, cloud-based project management suite designed for large and complex projects. It serves as the cloud-based successor to the well-known on-premise Primavera P6 solution.
Whether managing individual projects or an entire project portfolio, OPC offers the tools to oversee projects from start to finish. This enables efficient planning, stakeholder alignment, monitoring, and optimization, with a strong focus on time, cost, and risk management.
Unlike Primavera P6, which requires extensive network configurations and periodic local updates, OPC eliminates the need for maintaining servers, networks, and manual updates.
You should consider OPC when starting complex projects involving multiple stakeholders, where time and cost control are crucial. At the launch of a new project, OPC is an attractive option because it allows for rapid implementation with minimal setup time.
Even if your project is already underway, switching to OPC can be beneficial, especially if you’re currently using Excel, Microsoft Project, or other limited software solutions. Beyond just data migration, Primavera solutions provide greater control over scheduling, offering the project team more realistic and actionable insights.
If you’re interested in data migration or need guidance on restructuring your PMO, feel free to reach out.
OPC is particularly suited for industries like construction, energy, and infrastructure, where precise planning and risk management are essential. It also offers integration capabilities with other systems and data analysis platforms, enabling seamless workflows and better project performance insights.
1. Data-Driven Project Control
At BAEKEN, we optimize project performance with detailed data analysis in OPC. The platform makes it easy to collect, verify, and visualize project data, ensuring full transparency on project status. This aligns with our core value of analytical excellence, turning data into valuable insights for better decision-making.
2. Enhanced Collaboration & Stakeholder Management
At BAEKEN, we believe in strong, long-term partnerships with all stakeholders. OPC simplifies collaboration by providing real-time access to critical project information for both internal teams and external stakeholders. This not only improves communication and transparency but also enhances alignment and proactively resolves conflicts.
3. Risk Management & Probabilistic Planning
One of OPC’s unique features is its ability to integrate risk management into project planning. With BAEKEN’s expertise in OPC, we help manage uncertainties in scheduling while maximizing opportunities. Probabilistic planning enables teams to model scenarios and make accurate predictions about the impact of potential risks.
4. Scalable & Future-Proof
Whether managing a small project team or a global network of stakeholders, OPC is scalable and can adapt to the needs of any project. Its cloud-based infrastructure ensures flexibility, growth potential, and access to continuous innovations in project management.
5. Lean Planning: Seamlessly Integrated with OPC
In many traditional planning environments like Primavera P6, Lean planning is often handled separately (e.g., manual sticker boards). With OPC, this fragmented approach is eliminated. The Lean module is fully integrated within OPC, providing a structured and visual overview of daily activities, leading to a more flexible and streamlined project execution.
For years, Primavera P6 has been the gold standard for planning software in complex project environments. It remains a powerful and reliable tool for project planning and control. However, its outdated interface and steep learning curve limit usability for non-expert users, such as stakeholders and execution teams, who need clear visibility into project planning. Additionally, P6 requires on-premise hosting, which demands IT infrastructure and maintenance.
This is where OPC becomes the modern, cloud-based successor to P6.With OPC, you not only get the same powerful planning functionality, but also a modern, user-friendly interface that is equally accessible to stakeholders and implementers, and the flexibility of a cloud-based environment. Furthermore, OPC is not just a planning tool like P6, but a project management tool that also integrates many other modules such as risk, cost, lean planning and portfolio management.
In short, Oracle Primavera Cloud is now truly ready for the future of project management. It combines the strong foundation of P6 with the modern technologies needed to successfully manage projects in today’s time.
At BAEKEN, we believe in delivering sustainable solutions that fit the ever-changing world. Our expertise in Oracle Primavera Cloud allows us to master not only the technical aspects of project management, but also the human side. We understand that every project is unique, and we apply OPC in a way that supports your specific goals, with attention to innovation, sustainability, and stakeholder relations.
OPC helps us deliver on our promise: To enjoy creating support and insight to create impactful projects successfully.
With our deep knowledge of project controls, complemented by the powerful tools of Oracle Primavera Cloud, we ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget.
Oracle Primavera Cloud is not just another tool; it is a solution that builds on Primavera P6 and contributes to the strategic goals of organizations. At BAEKEN, we combine our expertise in Project Controls with OPC’s innovative capabilities to deliver sustainable, successful projects.
Are you ready to take project management to the next level? Contact us and find out how OPC can transform your next project.
Want to know more about this topic?
At BAEKEN we understand that the key to successful project management lies in the combination of technical expertise, strategic insight, and empathetic collaboration. That is why we have developed an intensive two-month training program aimed at training the next generation of Project Controls Consultants.
The training program is designed to develop the following core competences:
How We Teach
At BAEKEN, we believe that learning is most effective when it is approached from different angles. That is why we have developed a varied approach to educate participants in the different aspects of project management:
This combined approach ensures that participants not only acquire the knowledge they need, but also the practical skills to apply that knowledge. It is a holistic approach to education that prepares then to participate in real-world projects with confidence and competence.
Guidance and Application
After completing the training program, each participant will have the opportunity to apply the newly acquired skills in a real project. Under the guidance of an experienced mentor, you will receive intensive guidance during the first 6 months. But the training process does not stop after 2 months; at BAEKEN we always invest in development. Knowledge sessions are held regularly, and advanced modules are offered after some practical experience. This ensures a smooth transition from theory to practice and provides a safe and continuously evolving environment in which to learn and grow.
Conclusion
The BAEKEN training program is more than just training; it is an investment in the future of project management and an ongiong commitment to professional growth. Through a holistic approach to technical, analytical, and social skills, the program prepares individuals to make an impactful contribution to complex projects. With the support of experienced professionals, a focus on continuous growth, and a culture of continuous knowledge sharing and development, the Baeken training program is the ideal springboard for anyone who aspires to a career in project management.
One of the pillars of every project is the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and the associated WBS dictionary. Whether you are a contractor presenting the project baseline or the client reviewing it, the WBS and WBS Dictionary are your Rosetta Stone for understanding how the different pieces of a project will ultimately come together.
The WBS is the hierarchical subdivision of the project based on deliverables. It is the actual structure that we are used to seeing and using to organize the project. It allows us to break down the scope into manageable pieces and provides a reporting structure that we use for planning, performance monitoring, and actual costs.
The WBS Dictionary, in addition to expanding the simple description of the WBS elements, links the WBS to the Statement of Work (SOW). The WBS dictionary is usually a spreadsheet that lists the WBS, the WBS element name, and a description of the work in that element. A good dictionary will also have a field indicating which SOW paragraph is covered by that WBS element.
The last column in the example (Figure 1) shows how the lowest level elements of the WBS are related to the SOW. In the example, you can see that each element is related to two different sections in the SOW. This link demonstrates that the project will plan, execute, and capture actual project management costs with each individual element.
Linking these two structures allows you to view your project in different dimensions, which provides many reporting and analysis opportunities. It can quickly tell you whether you have everything covered in the SOW or are doing work in a WBS element that is not covered by the contract.
But that’s just the beginning. By looking at the relationships that exist between WBS elements in the schedule, you can see how different SOW paragraphs are linked and whether or not that makes sense. In addition, performance and actual costs can be assigned to SOW paragraphs. The visibility of this is even more valuable.
Used properly, the WBS dictionary becomes much more than a document describing work. It becomes a project kaleidoscope that allows you to view your project data in an infinite number of ways.
Understanding the WBS and the WBS Dictionary is essential to successfully managing a project. It provides a clear overview and in-depth understanding of how each part of the project comes together. It is a tool that should not be overlooked by project managers and stakeholders.
With every project comes risk, and that requires risk management. This is not just a task for the project manager, but for the entire team. It includes identifying, analyzing, and evaluating the risk and its potential impact.
A risk mitigation plan is not just a reactive document; it is a proactive approach to mitigating potential damage. At BAEKEN, we define risk events as those that could have a negative or positive impact on the project.
Risk identification is a layered and dynamic process. It involves not only identifying potential problems, but also creative and organized thinking. This includes brainstorming all possible risks that could negatively or positively impact the project.
Risks do not materialize in a vacuum; they can be tracked, understood, and evaluated. Checklists, based on previous experience, are a core part of the BAEKEN methodology and a valuable tool in identifying potential risks.
Risks are not all the same, and at BAEKEN we categorize them into areas such as technical, human, financial, and more so that we can thoroughly evaluate and manage them.
This statistical method goes beyond superficial calculations; it provides an in-depth simulation of possible outcomes and helps the BAEKEN team make accurate projections of risk events.
At BAEKEN, risk mitigation is not a standard practice; it is a customized strategy that considers various factors such as risk avoidance, risk sharing, and more.
We believe in flexibility and preparation. Our contingency plans are not mere back-ups but essential components for achieving project goals, even in the face of unanticipated risks.